cycles

Article published in The Australia Technical Analysts Association
Newsletter in July 1995

EXAMPLES OF USING TIME TO IDENTIFY
TURNING POINTS IN THE MARKETS
(For Beginners Part one)
By Chris Christidis

Cycles

"Everything in nature moves in cycles... our solar system moves in a cycle around the centre of the MilkyWay galaxy... the planets move in precise and predictable cycles around the sun... the cycle of the tilt of the earth causes the cycle of the seasons... the rotation of the earth produces the cycle of night and day...the full moon occurs with predictable regularity as do the rise and fall of the tides....These are all cycles we can understand and accept because we have an understanding of the underlying causes of these cycles." Walter Bressert

So do cycles also exist in the stock market?

So what if they do you might say! The fact that they exist is of little more than a passing interest for an analyst, so why use them?

Cycles are a very powerful analytical tool for identifying trends and trend reversals. The fact that an analyst is aware of a major bottom in a dominant cycle, can add confidence to the decision making process. Cycles and their turning points are used by short term traders and investors in the stockmarket.

You’ve probably heard the same old adage "trade with the trend", if the trend is up, buy the dips; if the trend is down, sell the rallies. Each dip or peak is a short term cycle within a long term cycle, each could be equated as a single wheel rotating within the confines of a larger wheel, ie wheels working within wheels. As long as the larger wheel is rolling, the trend continues.

This article is aimed at the beginner and try’s to show by way of simple examples that cycles exist in our local stockmarket in their various forms.

I hope that these few examples will arouse some curiosity and at least prompt you to investigate further. There are many books available on the topic, consult your local technical book shop or the Stock Exchange book shop in your capital city.

Natural Cycles (Seasonals)

The seasonal cycles of our planet Earth, are natural cycles. They are the direct result of the mechanical movements between the Earth, Moon and the Sun. Seasonal tendencies help form cyclic patterns in most markets.

Important Natural cycle dates to be aware of are-

( Southern Hemisphere)

The Autumnal Equinox 20,21,22 March
The Vernal Equinox 21,22,23 September
The Winter Solstice 21,22,23 June
The Summer Solstice 21,22,23 December
The Apogee 3,4 July and Perigee 2,3 January
The lunar cycle- new moon and full moon and Solar Eclipses

If major time cycles coincide with an Equinox, Solstice, Apogee, Perigee or a Solar Eclipse they can combine to create powerful turning points in markets. A good example was the 1987 high in the Allords where on the 21st September 1987 (Equinox), a Solar Eclipse occurred. (Keep in mind the 21st September 1995.)

Chart 1 - Daily Allords 1987 Crash

Each year the Earth passes through one orbit around the sun. Each orbit can be divided into 360 degrees as opposed to 365.25 days. Because the path of the Earth takes in its Orbit around the Sun is not a perfect circle but in fact an ellipse (an oval), the passage of time in degrees is not constant with the calendar days.

For example each 90 degree segment of the 360 degree circle is not regular in days by direct proportion as 1/4 of 365.25 = 91.3 days. Depending upon the seasonal time of the year, 90 degrees on the Solar Circle could take 89 days, 93 days or somewhere in between.

W.D.GANN, a legendary stock and commodity trader in the USA in the first half of this century, used precise mathematical and geometric relationships in terms of both time and price to amass a reputed $50 million from the markets. Gann’s methodology contained elements of intricate mathematical ratios, simplistic natural geometry, and aspects of financial astrology.

Mathematics, he believed was the only exact science. There are three important points that can be proved with mathematics or geometry : The Circle, Square, Triangle.

There are 360 degrees in a circle, no matter how large or how small the circle may be. Gann used divisions of the circle in time (degrees and calendar) to ascertain turning points in stocks and markets. He divided the circle into eighth’s i.e. 1/8 ,2/8 , 3/8, etc and applied these divisions to time. ( eg 3/8ths of 360=135, 5/8ths of 360=225 degrees. Note 225 = .618 of a calendar year)

Gann also used multiples(squares) of 90 and 144, i.e.(90,180,270, etc and 144,288,576,720) I have found these multiples to be very important in the local market.(See Chart 7 of CRA)

Important trend changes can occur at intervals of 90,120,180,225,240 and 360 and 720 degrees (twice around the circle) from highs or lows, although minor trend changes can occur every 30 degrees. (See Chart 2 of SPI below )

Some traders make decisions to enter or exit a market or stock purely based on time alone. For example, if a cycle has bottomed, traders position themselves on the long side and stay long for say a period of 30 degrees (or days), then they exit their positions, hopefully at a profit, purely on the fact that the cycle has fallen due, waiting then to re-enter the market.

Leonardo Fibonacci, an Italian mathematician of the 13th century, visited Egypt and on his return disclosed a number sequence now bearing his name, as a solution to a mathematical problem involving the reproduction of rabbits. This amazing sequence of numbers is as follows -1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377,etc all the way to infinity.

For those not familiar with the Fibonacci series, the series of numbers begins at one and generates new numbers in the series with an increase of approximately 61.8%.
Fibonacci numbers can be found in the spirals of sunflowers, the spirals on pine cones, and the ancient Greek and Egyptian’s applied the numbers (the Golden Mean 1.618) to such diverse areas as music, art, and even the building of the Parthenon and the Great Pyramid of Gizeh.

Leonardo didn’t really know these numbers had a connection to natural objects, and neither did anyone else for over 700 years. It’s only been about 50 years since they’ve come to be known as one of the most important sets of numbers in the universe.

Guess where else they appear? That’s right in the Stock market. I have found time after time the use of the numbers in the sequence to be very powerful.

In their book "The Elliott Wave Principle" Frost and Prechter state that "It is sufficient to state that the stockmarket has a propensity to demonstrate a form which can be aligned with the form present in the Fibonacci sequence"

Fibonacci and the Allords -Charts 3&4

As you can see from the charts on the next page, Fibonacci time was present at some of the major turning points over the last 12 months or so.

The first chart shows that the Allords made a bottom 144 calendar days from the top of 3-2-94. A rally occurred only to see the main trend continue down.

The next bottom occurred 287 degrees (2x144=288) not days from the top (the use of degrees was explained in the previous section.)

I must admit that I was looking at 288 calendar days at the time, only to see the market slide further. The Allords rallied but the main trend still remained down.

A final price low was made on the 9-2-.95, but the retest of the low made on 15-2-95 was 377 days from the top, and naturally 233 days from the low in June 94. (144+233=377 ; 377 x .618 =233)

Retest of the low

In some cases a time cycle might bottom after the price low. What I mean by this is that the retest of the low or high fails to break into new price territory, but a time cycle is due, therefore creating a higher bottom or lower top.

This is a very important point to keep in mind as many cycles can be missed by not being aware of the retest. Conversely, that doesn’t mean you ignore the price bottom just because a prior cycle bottoms latter in time but not price, as we shall see in chart no.4.

There they are again (Chart 4), those Fibonacci numbers stand out. Since the Allords bottomed on 9-2-95 it rallied 89 calender days to the 9-5-95. The market came back did a 50% retracement in price from the bottom on 15-6-95 (which was 120 calendar days from the retest low 15-2-95) then took off. A pullback then occurred on 3-7-95 (the Apogee) 144 calendar days from the price bottom 9-2-95. (89 up & 55 across), the market then continued its upward trend.

Fibonacci and Stocks -Charts 5,6,7

Fibonacci time can also be applied on stocks. Look at chart number 5 of CRA. You can see the clustering of times from previous short term tops and bottoms. Even inside the wedge that I have shown had 5,8,13,21 days between the minor swings. One should also be aware of Fibonnaci times in degrees (explained previous section). See chart 6 of CRA.

EXAMPLES OF FIBONACCI TIME IN THE ALLORDS
Chart No. 3
Daily Allords Index last 18 months

Gann once said "There is nothing new under the Sun, the past will continue to repeat itself time and time again."

Gann theory uses a vibrational technique for measuring relationships between waves of similar degree. Conventional Gann technique relies on square numbers i.e., .25, .333, .50, .666, .75, .875, 1.00, 1.5, 2.00, 4.00 , etc

Earlier I mentioned that Gann said, Mathematics, was the only exact science and that three important points that can be proved with mathematics or geometry were the Circle, Square, Triangle.

Bryce Gilmore in his book "Geometry of Markets " has applied ancient geometry to the markets and states that the basic underlying theory that one needs to appreciate, for the successful use of philosophical geometric charting, is that all waves of similar degree will relate mathematically.

He believes that Square ratios are only one third of the tools required for a comprehensive analysis of time cycles.

The other two thirds of the tools are made up of GEOMETRIC and HARMONIC ratios.

The Elliott Wave Principle primarily uses Geometric ratios, i.e 0.382, 0.618, 1.618, 1.902, 2.618, 4.236, etc as its mathematical base.

Harmonic ratios are an integral part of the whole concept i.e .293, 0.3535, 0.414, 0.586, 0.707, 1.414, 1.732, 2.236, etc

I shall explore the theory and use of Geometric and Harmonic Ratios in my next article.

Most cycles are dynamic - not static

All markets work to their own dynamic system. Dynamic means they are interactive, i.e. they expand and contract over time.

Market cycles are directly related to the behaviour patterns of individuals acting on masse. Markets vibrate in price and time from highs to lows and lows to highs in minor trends, intermediate trends and primary trends.

Each trend of similar degree is the direct effect of an underlying cause. The cause is the constant vibration of the numerous cycles at work in any particular complex. Therefore the use of Time cycle Ratios can help identify the relationships between these trends of similar degree.

What are Time Cycle Ratios

A time cycle ratio is the projection of a previous market trend or a series of market trends (time cycle) projected into the future, using the ratios mentioned previously. A time cycle is the length of time of a previous trend, be it a bear or bull trend.

For example you may take the time cycle of a bull trend (from bottom to top - number of days, degrees) and project it forward by Geometric or Harmonic or Arithmetic Ratios.

As markets move along, each confirmed minor, intermediate and primary degree top or bottom should be noted and used to compare future tops and bottoms to see if they relate to each other. This can be done manually (kept in a file) or stored on computer in some way.

I use CycleTrader/WaveTrader, a software package produced by Bryce Gilmore, of Australia which stores these tops and bottoms in a fact file which can be accessed for rapid analysis of current tops or bottoms for any relationship to past turning points.

(See chart below and Chart 8 next page)

Allords Fact File(Swing Points) from 1931

CHART 8
Allords Fact File (Swing Points)
Showing Time Cycle 1980 high - 1989 high

The above fact file shows the Allords from 1931 to the present. A Time Cycle from the 1980 high to the 1989 high has given strong turning points in the past. If you take the range in calendar days and project it forward 25%, you get the 1991 high, 50% of the range projected forward picked the high in February 1994 and recently 61.8% of the range picked the retest of the low on 9-2-95. (i.e 15-2-95). Now 66.6%(2/3rds) of the range projected into the future produces dates around the 17-19th July 1995. These are quality time cycle ratios.

There are many other examples of time cycles in our market, both minor and major. I have tried to show by way of simple examples some of them. When analysing the markets or stocks, time should be considered in conjuction with other factors such as pattern, position of indicators, etc.

I have included a worksheet (APPENDIX 1.) that I prepared on the 4th July for the Allords that I keep on file, which helps me answer questions that are always asked such as where is support,resistance, where’s the market going, etc.

In conclusion Pythagoras once said,
It is impossible for anyone to learn anything until he has experienced its truth for himself